Wednesday, February 3, 2021

Meatball Poker - Draw Odds

Playing Meatball Poker obviously gives very different starting hands over regular Texas Hold 'em.   Since every player is dealt 3 cards and needs to discard one faceup meatball, clearly players are going to be starting with more pairs and flush draws than in a 2 card deal.   With better hands, many players will be less likely to fold pre-flop as well.  So what are the odds of drawing the various hands?

HandMeatball
(3 cards)
Hold 'em
(2 cards)
Any Pair17.18% 5.88%
Pair J or better5.29%1.81%
Specific Pair(i.e. AK)0.453%1.32%
Any Suited60.24%23.53%
Suited J or better5.29%1.81%

There are also some interesting draws that occur only in Meatball Such as a three of a kind draw or three suited cards.  In these cases, you'll need to turn over one of your cards as your meatball diminishing your odds of making hands post flop.

Another situation that arises in Meatball are draws such as a pair and an ace.  In these cases, you may choose to flip your ace as the meatball signaling your hand strength to the other players.   The odds for these situations is shown here:
HandMeatball
(3 cards)
3 of a kind0.24%
Specific 3 of a kind (i.e. AAA)0.02%
AAK(or KKA, QQA, etc...)0.11%